IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN THE MENA REGION : A SPATIAL PANEL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is highly dependent on agriculture, making it particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. This study examines the impact of climate change on agriculture in the MENA region, using a weather-panel approach across 20 countries over the period 1991-2018. Emphasizing the importance of accounting for spatial autocorrelation, we estimate a Fixed Effects Spatial Error Model (FE-SEM) taking into account spillover effects among neighboring countries. Our model improves the precision of estimates and reveals a non-linear relationship between the agricultural production function and weather, with different short-term marginal effects of temperature and precipitation across seasons. The simulation under the SSP5 8.5 scenario (2020-2039) predicts predicts a negative impact on the MENA agricultural production index, with an average of -29.1%.. These findings call on policymakers to prioritize adaptation strategies, invest in sustainable resource management, and cooperate with international efforts to comprehensively address the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the MENA region.