Quantitative Economics

Journal Of The Econometric Society

Edited by: Stéphane Bonhomme • Print ISSN: 1759-7323 • Online ISSN: 1759-7331

Quantitative Economics: Jul, 2024, Volume 15, Issue 3

Incentive contracts when agents distort probabilities

https://doi.org/10.3982/QE2275
p. 607-653

Víctor González‐Jiménez

I show that stochastic contracts generate powerful incentives when agents suffer from probability distortion. When implementing these contracts, the principal can target probability distortions in order to inflate the agent's perceived benefits of exerting high levels of effort. This novel source of motivation is absent in contracts traditionally regarded as optimal. A theoretical framework and an experiment demonstrate that stochastic contracts implemented with small probabilities, which expose the agent to a high degree of risk, generate higher performance than cost‐equivalent contracts with lower or no risk exposure. I find that probability distortions that result from likelihood insensitivity—cognitive limitations that prevent the accurate evaluation of probabilities—account for this finding. The results highlight the limits of contracts traditionally regarded as optimal.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Incentive contracts when agents distort probabilities"

Víctor González-Jiménez

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Incentive contracts when agents distort probabilities"

Víctor González-Jiménez

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10911176. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.