Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Sep, 2024, Volume 92, Issue 5

Endogenous Production Networks under Supply Chain Uncertainty

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20629
p. 1621-1659

Alexandr Kopytov|Bineet Mishra|Kristoffer Nimark|Mathieu Taschereau‐Dumouchel

Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at higher prices. The resulting reorganization of the network tends to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but at the cost of a decline in aggregate output. The model also predicts that more productive and stable firms have higher Domar weights—a measure of their importance as suppliers—in the equilibrium network. We provide a basic calibration of the model using U.S. data to evaluate the importance of these mechanisms.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Endogenous Production Networks under Supply Chain Uncertainty"

Alexandr Kopytov, Bineet Mishra, Kristoffer Nimark and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

This supplemental appendix contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Endogenous Production Networks under Supply Chain Uncertainty"

Alexandr Kopytov, Bineet Mishra, Kristoffer Nimark and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12004835. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.