Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Nov, 2024, Volume 92, Issue 6

Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Hypothesis Testing in Nonparametric IV Models

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18602
p. 2027-2067

Christoph Breunig|Xiaohong Chen

We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for inequality (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test statistic is based on a modified leave‐one‐out sample analog of a quadratic distance between the restricted and unrestricted sieve two‐stage least squares estimators. We provide computationally simple, data‐driven choices of sieve tuning parameters and Bonferroni adjusted chi‐squared critical values. Our test adapts to the unknown smoothness of alternative functions in the presence of unknown degree of endogeneity and unknown strength of the instruments. It attains the adaptive minimax rate of testing in L2. That is, the sum of the supremum of type I error over the composite null and the supremum of type II error over nonparametric alternative models cannot be minimized by any other tests for NPIV models of unknown regularities. Confidence sets in L2 are obtained by inverting the adaptive test. Simulations confirm that, across different strength of instruments and sample sizes, our adaptive test controls size and its finite‐sample power greatly exceeds existing non‐adaptive tests for monotonicity and parametric restrictions in NPIV models. Empirical applications to test for shape restrictions of differentiated products demand and of Engel curves are presented.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Hypothesis Testing in Nonparametric IV Models"

Christoph Breunig and Xiaohong Chen

This supplementary appendix contains materials to support our main paper. Appendix C presents additional simulation results. Appendix D provides proofs of our results on confidence sets in Subsection 4.3. Appendix E presents additional technical lemmas and all the proofs.

Supplement to "Adaptive, Rate-Optimal Hypothesis Testing in Nonparametric IV Models"

Christoph Breunig and Xiaohong Chen

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13323460. The authors were granted an exemption to publish parts of their data because either access to these data is restricted or the authors do not have the right to republish them. However, the authors included in the package, on top of the codes and the parts of the data that are not subject to the exemption, a simulated or synthetic dataset that allows running the codes. The Journal checked the data and the codes for their ability to generate all tables and figures in the paper and approved online appendices. Whenever the available data allowed, the Journal also checked for their ability to reproduce the results. However, the synthetic/simulated data are not designed to produce the same results.