Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Sep, 2024, Volume 92, Issue 5

Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21654
p. 1661-1695

Ulrich K. Müller|Mark W. Watson

This paper proposes a model for, and investigates the consequences of, strong spatial dependence in economic variables. Our findings echo those of the corresponding “unit root” time series literature: Spatial unit root processes induce spuriously significant regression results, even with clustered standard errors or spatial HAC corrections. We develop large‐sample valid unit root and stationarity tests that can detect such strong spatial dependence. Finally, we use simulations to study strategies for valid inference in regressions with persistent spatial data, such as spatial analogues of first‐differencing transformations. Regressions from Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014) are used to illustrate the issues and methods.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Spatial Unit Roots and Spurious Regression"

Ulrich K. Müller and Mark W. Watson

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11199509. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.