Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Nov, 2024, Volume 92, Issue 6

Caution and Reference Effects

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21748
p. 2069-2103

Simone Cerreia‐Vioglio|David Dillenberger|Pietro Ortoleva

We introduce Cautious Utility, a new model based on the idea that individuals are unsure of trade‐offs between goods and apply caution. The model yields an endowment effect, even when gains and losses are treated symmetrically. Moreover, it implies either loss aversion or loss neutrality for risk, but in a way unrelated to the endowment effect, and it captures the certainty effect, providing a novel unified explanation of all three phenomena. Cautious Utility can help organize empirical evidence, including some that directly contradicts leading alternatives.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Caution and Reference Effects"

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, David Dillenberger, and Pietro Ortoleva

This appendix includes all the missing proofs and the ancillary facts used in the main body of the paper. We begin with a section on facts instrumental for Theorem 1 and Proposition 5.