Econometrica: Nov, 1982, Volume 50, Issue 6
Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913386
p. 1345-1370
Edward C. Prescott, Finn E. Kydland
The equilibrium growth model is modified and used to explain the cyclical variances of a set of economic time series, the covariances between real output and the other series, and the autocovariance of output. The model is fitted to quarterly data for the post-war U.S. economy. Crucial features of the model are the assumption that more than one time period is required for the construction of new productive capital, and the non-time-separable utility function that admits greater intertemporal substitution of leisure. The fit is surprisingly good in light of the model's simplicity and the small number of free parameters.