Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Sep, 2024, Volume 92, Issue 5

Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20942
p. 1553-1588

Matteo Cervellati|Giorgio Gulino|Paolo Roberti

We exploit a natural experiment involving a randomization of votes across parties within coalitions in all local elections in Italy for over a decade. A lottery on the position of party symbols in the ballot papers allows estimating the causal effect of increasing votes to parties for coalition policies. A non‐marginal random boost of votes shifts budgetary spending towards the treated party's platform, but only for issues that are salient in that party's political manifesto. We study the chains of mechanisms mapping votes into policies and link it to an increase in bargaining power within legislative majorities. Parties leverage their higher electoral support to gain the appointment of politically affiliated cabinet members. Empowering different parties also leads to the selection of cabinets with different socio‐demographic characteristics. The unintentional experiment helps shed new light on mechanisms mapping votes to parties into coalition policies.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments"

Matteo Cervellati, Giorgio Gulino, and Paolo Roberti

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Random Votes to Parties and Policies in Coalition Governments"

Cervellati, Matteo, Giorgio Gulino, and Paolo Roberti

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12755014. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.

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